PENGARUH KONDISI EKONOMI DAN KINERJA PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SEKTOR PROPERTI

Abstract

Kris's ekonomi di Indonesia terjadi sejak pertengahan dull 1907. Krisis diawali dengan melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika, dan diikuti dengan kenaikan tingkat bunga dan inflasi. Ketiga indikator kondisi ekonomi tersebut mempengaruhi kinerja perusahaan properti dan pada akhirnya mempengaruhi indeks harga saham sektor properti. Penelitian berikut ini menguji pengaruh kondisi ekonomi berupa kurs US$, tingkat bunga dan inflasi serta pengaruh kinerja perusahaan properti berupa debt to equity ratio, current ratio, retun on equity, price to earning ratio dan price to book value terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti. Penelitian dilakukan dengan mengembangkan sebelas hipotesa untuk mengetahui pengaruh kurs US$, tingkat bunga dan inflasi sebagai indikator kondisi ekonomi terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti, serta pengaruh debt to equity ratio, current ratio, retun on equity, price to earning ratio dan price to book value sebagai indikator kinerja perusahaan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti. Data untuk perhitungan indeks harga saham sektor properti, debt to equity ratio, current ratio, retun on equity, price to earning ratio dan price to book value diperoleh dari Jakarta Monthly Statistics. Data kurs US$ dan tingkat bunga diperoleh dari Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia yang dikeluarkan Bank Indonesia, dan data inflasi diperoleh dari Biro Pusat Statistik. Pengujian hipotesis menggunakan analisis regresi dengan uji t dan uji F. Hasil analisis regresi menunjukkan bahwa kurs US$, tingkat bunga dan inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti. Sementara itu, kelima indikator kinerja perusahaan memberikan hash yang sesuai dengan hipotesisnya. Variabel debt to equity ratio berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti, sedangkan current ratio dan return on equity berpengaruh positif dan signifikan pada indeks harga saham properti. Demikian juga pengaruh price to earning ratio dan price to book value yang positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti. Hasil estimasi regresi juga menunjukkan bahwa kurs US$, tingkat bunga dan inflasi secara bersama-sama berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti, dengan kata lain bahwa kondisi ekonomi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti. Demikian juga dengan Debt to Equity Ratio, Current Ratio, Retun on Equity, Price to Earning Ratio dan Price to Book Value secara bersama-sama berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor proper'', yang berarti kinerja perusahaan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti. Hasil estimasi regresi menunjukkan bahwa kurs US$, tingkat bunga, inflasi, Debt to Equity Ratio, Current Ratio, Retun on Equity, Price to Earning Ratio dan Price to Book Value secara bersama-sama berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti, dengan kata lain kondisi ekonomi dan kinerja perusahaan secara bersama-sama berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham sektor properti.Economic crisis has attacted Indonesia since the mid of 1997. Crisis was preceded by depreciating of rupiahs' exchange rate to US dollar, and was followed by increasing in interest rate and inflation rate. Three of those conditions have impact in property firms performance and so, have impact in stock price index of property sector. This paper intent to identify and analyze the impact of economics condition, that is exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate to stock price index of property sector, and the impact of firms performance that is : debt to equity ratio, current ratio, return on equity, price to earning ratio and price to book value to stock price index of property sector by developing eleven hypothesis. The data used to calculation stock price index of property sector, debt to equity ratio, current ratio, return on equity, price to earning ratio and price to book value taken from Jakarta Stock Exchange Monthly Statistic. Exchange rate and interest rate data was obtained from Indonesian Financial and Economic Statistics released by Bank Indonesia, and inflation rate data was reported from The Central Bureau of Stastistics, To test the hypohesis, this paper used regression analysis with t-test and F-test. This paper reports several findings. First, stock price index of property sector seems to react negative and significantly to exchange rate, interest rates and inflation rate. Two, evidence about the effect on the firms' performance is like what the hypothesis. Debt to equity ratio affect negative and significantly stock price index of property sector, and current ratio, return on equity affect positive and significantly stock price index of property sector. Price to earning ratio and price to book value affect positive and significantly stock price index of property sector too. This paper showed that exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate as whole have positive and significant impact to stock price index of property sector, in other word, economic condition have positive and significant impact to stock price index of property sector. This paper showed that debt to equity ratio, current ratio, return on equity, price to earning ratio and price to book value as a whole have positive and significant impact to stock price index of property sector, in other word, firms performance have positive and significant impact to stock price index of property sector. The result of regression analysis in this paper showed that exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate, debt to equity ratio, current ratio, return on equity, price to earning ratio and price to book value as a whole have posittve and significant impact to stock price index of property sector, or economic Gentians and firms performance as a whole affect positive and significantly stock price index of property sector.