VARIABEL PROKSI CAMEL DAN KARAKTERISTIK BANK LAINNYA UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN BANK DI liNDONESIA

Abstract

ABSTRACT The objective of this research is to give empirical evidence using CAMEL proxy and the other characteristic bank to predict a bankruptcy. This research using of 333 banks were randomly selected from government bank, devisa bank, non devisa bank, local government bank (BPD) and mixed bank in Indonesia for one and two year before bank bankrupt (1997, 1998 and 1999). The hypotesis derived were . (HI¬M 0 CAMEL proxy variables (equity, loanta, NIM, ROA, uncollected, core, insider, overhead) and other characteristic bank variables (logsize, holding, go-public) different between bankrupt and non bankrupt. By using univariate analysis the result show that core, insider, overhead, go- public in 1997 bankruptcy and ROA, core, insider, logsize in 1999 bankruptcy variable are consistently different between bankrupt and non bankrupt banks. While in 1998 there is no variable that consistently different By using multivariate analysis, NIM and core variables show were consistently the same sign as that being predicted. In the same manner as equity, loanta, ROA and insider variables. Loanta, ROA, and insider are strong variables for explaining bankruptcy. This results were generally consistent with accept Hi, H2, H3, H4, H6 and H7. The result multivariate analysis in bank characteristic of only logsize which is consistent in sign (accept H9). The accuracy of prediction in bankruptcy 1997-1999 tend to decrease while error type tend to increase,this is caused by economy crisis effect. However this result is much better than prior research. Level of error in bankruptcy prediction is type II, where bank which is predicted bankrupt obviously non bankrupt. Key word : bank, bankruptcy, CAMEL and other characteristic ABSTRAKSI Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memberikan bukti empiris penggunaan variabel proksi CAMEL serta karakteristik bank untuk memprediksi kebangkrutan bank. Sampel yang dianalisis sebanyak 333 bank yang dibedakan secara cluster dan diambil secara acak dad bank pemerintah, bank devisa, bank non devisa, BPD, dan bank campuran. Hipotesis yang diajukan (HI-H11) variabel proksi CAMEL (equity, loanta, NIM,ROA, uncollected, core, insider dan overhead), dan variabel karakteristik bank (logsize, holding dan go-public) berbeda antara bank yang bangkrut dan tidak bangkrut Hasil uji univariate variabel core, insider, overhead, go-public (1997), ROA, core, insider dan logsize(1999) secara konsisten berbeda antara bank yang bangkrut dan tidak bangkrut. Pada kebangkrutan 1998 tidak ada satupun variabel yang konsisten dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan Sedangkan basil uji multivariate variabel RIM dan core secara konsisten tandanya sama dengan yang diprediksikan. Variabel equity, loanta, ROA, dan insider secara umum tandanya konsisten dengan yang diprediksi. Loanta, ROA, dan insider merupakan variabel yang sangat kuat dalam menjelaskan kebangkrutan. Hasilnya secara umum konsisten dengan menerima Hi, Hz, H3, H4, H6 dan H7). Hasil uji multivariate karakteristik bank hanya logsize saj a yang konsisten tandanya (menerima 139) Ketepatan prediksi kebangkrutan 1997 ke 1999 cenderung menurun sedangkan tipe kesalahan cenderung naik, hal ini disebabkan pengaruh 'crisis ekonomi, meskipun demikian hasilnya lebih bagus dibandingkan dengan basil penelitian sebelunmya Tingkat kesalahan yang dilakukan dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan adalah tipe H yaitu bank yang diprediksi bangkrut temyata tidak bangkrut. Kata kunci : bank, kebangkrutan, CAMEL dan karakteristik lamnya.