APPLICATION OF THE ROUTH HURWITZ CRITERIA METHOD TO ANALYSIS THE STABILITY OF THE EPIDEMIC MODEL OF THE SPREAD OF COVID 19

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid 19) is caused by the virus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-2 (SARS-CoV-2), Covid 19 that occurs globally deserved attention so that its spread can be controlled .This paper deals with analysis stability model SEIR of Covid 19 spread with added isolation in infected subpopulation as model parameter. The analytical results show that three are two equilibrium points, endemic equilibrium point and non endemic equilibrium point. The stability analysis of equilibrium points is determined by basi reproduction number (ℜ0) which is derived from Next Generation Matrix (NGM). Stabilty analysis that endemic non endemic ekuilibrium points use local stabilty analysis with Routh Hurwitz kriteria. If 0  1, Then the non endemic equilibrium point is loccaly asymptotically stable and if 0  1, Then the endemic equilibrium point is loccaly asymptotically stable. The numerical analysis simulation are also provided to ilustrate the analytical results. The results of the numerical simulation of the model are endemik locally asymptotically stable. Key Words : Covid 19, SEIR Model, Local Stabilty, Routh Hurwitz Criteria.