STABILITY ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC MODEL OF THE SPREAD CORONA VIRUS WITH THE CROWD IMPACT

Abstract

The disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has became pandemic that must be considered in order to control its spread. This thesis discusses about implementation of the Covid-19 virus spread model with the impact of crowd. Covid-19 virus can transmitted between humans through mouth or nose when infected individuals sneezes, coughs, or talks. So that, contact between individuals in population cause the spread of Covid-19 infection. Dynamic model of Covid-19 virus infection in this thesis consist of five variables: Susceptible (S), Traced (T), Quarantine (Q), Infected (I), and Recovery (R). Also this model consist of nonlinear differential system. The results of the analysis obtained are two equilibrium points, called disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point. Analysis of stability at the equilibrium points are determined by basic reproduction number (R0) where is the value of basic reproduction number in this case is R0>1. It means this dynamic model is asymtotically stable in endemic equilibrium point. Numerical simulation is provided to explain the behavior of the system and to understand the impact of the crowd on the spread of Covid-19 virus in a population. Keywords : Covid-19, Crowd Impact, Dynamic Model, Local and Global Stability