PENENTUAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT: SINTESIS PENDEKATAN MONETER DAN KESEIMBANGAN PASAR BARANG (Studi Kasus Indonesia Tahun 1998-2013)

Abstract

This study has three main purposes: first, to examine the PPP doctrine of Indonesia rupiah exchange rate to the US dollar on the free-floating system. Second, to analyze empirically the effect of monetary variables, namely: Indonesia relative money supply to the United States, Indonesia national income, the United States national income, Indonesia interest rate and the United States interest rate on the behavior of the exchange rate of rupiah to US dollar on free-floating system. Third, to analyze the effect of government spending on the exchange rate of rupiah to the US dollar on the free-floating system. This research model is built on the development of monetary approach model, by applying a synthesis monetary approach and goods market equilibrium. The simultaneous equations of the national income, the demand for money and the exchange rate are used to analyze the relationship of variables. For estimation is using two stage least squares (TSLS). The Conclusion of this study: first, based on the results of this study indicate that the PPP doctrine is not applied to the exchange rate of rupiah to the US dollar in the period of this study. This indication shows that the exchange rate of rupiah to the US dollar deviate from its parity rate and the exchange rate of rupiah are undervalued. Second, the relative money supply has depreciative effect on the rupiah exchange rate to US dollar. Indonesia national income has appreciative effect on the rupiah exchange rate to US dollar. United States national income has depreciative effect on the rupiah exchange rate to US dollar. Indonesia interest rate has appreciative effect on the rupiah exchange rate and United States interest rate has depreciative effect on the rupiah exchange rate to the US dollar. Third, the government spending has appreciative effect on the exchange rate of rupiah to the US dollar.