ANALISIS DAMPAK BAURAN KEBIJAKAN MAKROPRUDENSIAL, INFLATION TARGETING DAN KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TERHADAP SIKLUS KEUANGAN INDONESIA DALAM SISTEM KURS MENGAMBANG

Abstract

Maintaining financial stability system is an important duty of monetary authority, unstable financial system could potentially impact losses to economy of a country. Macroprudential policy is a new policy in Indonesia to maintain financial stability system due to ineffective monetary, fiscal and microprudential policy to maintain financial system stability. This research identified policy mixed character between macroprudential, monetary and fiscal policy in Indonesia as an open economy country and its impact to Indonesia financial cycle. Identify the policies characteristic used correlation coefficient between financial cycle component and each policy cycle component. Financial cycle component obtained from hodrick-presscot filter of credit growth in Indonesia. Meanwhile, analyzing the effect of each policy to financial cycle used error correction model. The result exhibited macroprudential policy through reserve requirement – loan to deposit ratio muffles procyclicality to the Indonesia financial cycle or tend to countercyclical. Monetary policy through inflation targeting framework muffles procyclicality to the Indonesia financial cycle or tend to countercyclical. However, fiscal policy through government debt growth exhibited procyclical or boost the financial cycle in Indonesia and floating exchange rate regime in Indonesia exhibited co-movement character with Indonesia financial cycle. It could be concluded that monetary policy through inflation targeting and fiscal policy through government debt growth are not enough to maintain financial cycle stability in Indonesia. Policy mixed between monetary, fiscal and macroprudential is imporant because macroprudential policy through reserve requirement – loan to deposit ratio is effective to muffle procyclicality on Indonesia financial cycle.