PENENTUAN DAERAH PRIORITAS PROGRAM DAN PREDIKSI SEBARAN KASUS HIV DENGAN METODE FUZZY TOPSIS DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

KURNIAWAN, Taufik and Suryono, Suryono and Adi, Kusworo (2017) PENENTUAN DAERAH PRIORITAS PROGRAM DAN PREDIKSI SEBARAN KASUS HIV DENGAN METODE FUZZY TOPSIS DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Masters thesis, School of Postgraduate.

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Abstract

Perencanaan strategis sangat berpengaruh terhadap keberhasilan pelaksanaan suatu program/kegiatan. Perencanaan strategis dapat berupa penentuan prioritas dan peramalan besaran masalah sebagai dasar penetapan langkah strategis baik berupa pengalokasian biaya maupun sumberdaya manusia. Setelah dilaksanakan penghitungan fuzzy TOPSIS dengan alternatif merupakan sembilan belas kecamatan di Kabupaten Semarang dan kriteria keputusan berupa jumlah pengidap HIV serta tiga belas kriteria pendukung lainnya maka diperoleh hasil Kecamatan Bandungan sebagai prioritas pertama. Metode exponential smoothing digunakan untuk memprediksi angka pengidap HIV pada periode 2017 dengan nilai konstanta smoothing (α) sebesar 0,61. Konstanta smoothing terpilih diperoleh dari rata – rata konstanta smoothing yang menghasilkan nilai MSE terkecil pada setiap kecamatan. Penerapan metode fuzzy TOPSIS dan exponential smoothing menjadikan proses perencanaan lebih sederhana dan praktis sehingga meningkatkan optimalitas kebijakan yang diambil. Pengembangan dapat dilakukan dengan perluasan alternatif dan penambahan jumlah kriteria pada penghitungan fuzzy TOPSIS serta penggunaan metode peramalan kausalitas menggantikan metode exponential smoothing dikarenakan penularan HIV bergantung pada beberapa hal baik kuantitatif maupun kualitatif. Kata kunci : fuzzy TOPSIS, exponential smoothing, program HIV, peramalan, pengambilan keputusan, prioritas Strategic planning is very influential on the successful implementation of a program / activity. Strategic planning can be in the form of prioritizing and forecasting the magnitude of the problem as the basis for determining the strategic step either in the allocation of cost and human resources. After the calculation of fuzzy TOPSIS with alternative is nineteen sub districts in Semarang Regency and the decision criteria in the form of the number of people living with HIV and thirteen other supporting criteria then obtained Bandungan District as the first priority. Exponential smoothing method is used to predict the number of people living with HIV in the period 2017 with the value of constant smoothing (α) of 0.61. Selected smoothing constants are obtained from the average Smoothing constants that produce the smallest MSE values in each sub-district. Application of TOPSIS fuzzy and exponential smoothing method makes the planning process simpler and more practical so as to improve the optimality of the policy taken. Development can be done with alternative extensions and addition of number of criteria on TOPSIS fuzzy calculation and use of causal forecasting method to replace exponential smoothing method due to HIV transmission depends on several things both quantitative and qualitative. Keywords: fuzzy TOPSIS, exponential smoothing, strategic planning, HIV programs, forecasting, decision making, priorities

Item Type:Thesis (Masters)
Subjects:Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions:School of Postgraduate (mixed) > Master Program in Information System
ID Code:61455
Deposited By:Mrs Ekana Perpus Pasca
Deposited On:21 Mar 2018 11:44
Last Modified:21 Mar 2018 11:44

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