Analisis Determinan Harga Rumah di Pasar Properti Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to analyze how the influence of the determinant variable housing prices from demand and supply in the Indonesian property market both in the short and long term. Several variables that are believed to theoretically as a determinant of housing prices from demand side among others economic growth (real GDP growth), interest rates and apartment prices as variable price of investment property assets other than housing while components of construction costs, consisting wage of construction workers and price of construction materials are determinant of housing prices from supply side. In addition, researchers are also use dummy variabel beause in this study consider the existence of LTV ratios policies that affect the housing price that began to be applied Bank of Indoenesua in 2013. This research was conducted using Autoregressive Distributed Lag analysis model. Before the model analysis conducted, it is necessary to do a cointegration test with Bound Test to see whether there is cointegration between variables in long term. Estimation results show that in the short run, real GDP growth, interest rate, apartment price growth as another asset variable, production cost, and dummy of LTV policy as determinant of housing price have a significant influence to change of housing prices in Indonesia property market on different lags. Meanwhile, in the long run the variables affecting change of housing prices in the property market significantly include growth of real GDP, interest rates, the growth of apartment prices as other property asset variables, production costs, as well as the dummy of LTV policy as the determinant of house / housing prices have a significant effect on changes in house prices in the Indonesian property market. However, in the long run the influence of the price of building materials on changes in property prices in this case the house / housing is not in accordance with the hypothesis, because it has a negative effect. When the price of building materials increased, property prices in this case decreased.