ANALISIS EFEKTIVITAS MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA DALAM MENCAPAI SASARAN AKHIR INFLASI PERIODE 2005Q1 – 2016Q4

Abstract

The impact of monetary policy implementation on inflation is not immediately but there is time lag. This happens because of the operational mechanism and instrument of the monetary policy in influencing the ultimate goal through the channels, known as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism through interest rate channel, credit channel, and inflation expectation channel. The data used in this research is quarterly time series data from 2005Q1 until 2016Q4. Variable used in this research are SBI interest rate, PUAB interest rate, deposit interest rate, lending rate, Business Activity Survey (SKDU), bank reserve, credit, exchange rate, output gap, and inflation. To measure the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis method is used. The result of impulse response function (IRF) can be concluded that the most effective expectation transmission mechanism to respond inflation because the time required to achieve toward equilibrium faster than credit channel and interest rate channel.