ANALISIS KETERKAITAN INFLASI ANTAR KELOMPOK KOMODITAS BARANG/JASA DI JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 2009.1-2015.12

Abstract

Inflation rate at the regional level is mostly caused by non-monetary factors. In Indonesia, inflation rate is calculated based on the average values of seven groups of commodities affecting inflation, they are: food group (BAMA); prepared food, beverage, cigarette, and tobacco group (MMTR); housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel group (PALGB); clothing group (SAND); health group (KES); education, recreation, and sports group (PROR); and transportation, communication, and financial services group (TKJK). This research is aimed at analyzing the correlation among groups of goods/services commodities by observing the distribution of each commodities group in Central Java. The data used in this research were secondary data of monthly inflation (mtm) from January 2009 through December 2015. The analytical method employed to answer research questions was Vector Autoregression (VAR), by taking results of Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). Results show that there are correlation among groups of goods/services commodities in affecting inflation in Central Java. BAMA group is the biggest influencer for price movement within its own groups, MMTR group, PALGB group, and TKJK group. Meanwhile, SAND group is mostly affected by its own groups and MMTR group. KES group is also mostly affected by its own groups as well as PALGB group, whereas PROR group is mostly affected by its own groups and SAND group.