KEBIJAKAN MACROPRUDENTIAL LOAN TO VALUE RATIO DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP INVESTASI RESIDENSIAL DI INDONESIA

Abstract

This research aims to see the influence of Loan to Value ratio (LTV) policy on long-term and short-term equlibrium of total residential property loans provided by financial institutions (state-owned banks, regional government banks, national private banks, foreign banks and mixed banks and rural banks) in Indonesia. By using partial adjustment model, it will be evaluated whether the level of Residential Property Credit at these banks in Indonesia has an effect on the determination of the policy of loan to value, either tightening or relaxing in 2012, 2013 and 2015. This research uses time series data from 2005 to 2016. The estimation result obtained by using dummy LTV ratio as an endogenously structural break, it was found that banks tend to be stable in distributing their property loans in the short term so that it can be argued that the LTV ratio policy has no significant effect on the short term. However in the long run, the tightening direction of the loan to value ratio policy set in 2013, had shown a significant positive effect on the growth of residential property loans. This could indicates that the 2013 loan to value policy positively encourages growth of residential investment.