ANALISIS HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, KONSUMSI ENERGI DAN EMISI CO2 SERTA PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN ENERGI DI INDONESIA

Abstract

The fossil fuels such as petroleum, natural gas, and coal become energy sources that are still dominant in energy demand in Indonesia. The consumption of fossil and electricity energy causes the CO2 emission level is increasing. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the short and long run causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in Indonesia. To this end, annual data covering the period 1975–2014 use tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger causality based on an error-correction model are applied. The researcher is also using LEAP software for forecasting energy demand. The results show that there is a bi-directional causality between economic growth and consumption of fossil and electricity energy. This means that an increase in economic growth directly affects consumption of fossil and electricity energy and that consumption of fossil and electricity energy also stimulate further economic growth. In addition, the results support the occurrence of uni-directional causality running from CO2 emissions to economic growth and consumption of fossil and electricity energy without any feedback effects. This paper also found that the results of projected energy demand in industry and households is still dominated by fossil fuels from 2014-2035 with the policy and without policy scenario.