PENGARUH KONSUMSI KEDELAI, PRODUKSI KEDELAI, KURS (EXCHANGE RATE), GDP PERKAPITA, HARGA KEDELAI DOMESTIK DAN HARGA KEDELAI IMPOR TERHADAP IMPOR KEDELAI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1980 -2013

Abstract

Soybean Consumption in Indonesia maintains higher year by year, nevertheless it is not followed by national production capacity. As the matter, government enacts soybean import policy in order to fulfill national soybean consumption. The are several factors which are indicated as determinants of soybean import, comprise of : national soybean consumption, national soybean production, exchange rate, per capita GDP, price of domestic soybean and price of imported soybean. This research aims to analyze import determinants of soybean in Indonesia both from short run and long run viewpoint. This research examines 34 years of period of time (1980 – 2013) import data using error correction model. The dependent variable is soybean import, independent variable – variables consist of national soybean consumption, national soybean production, exchange rate, per capita GDP, price of domestic soybean and price of imported soybean. The result show that national soybean consumption, national soybean production, price of domestic soybean and price of imported soybean have positive effect on import both in long run and short run. GDP per capita only affects on the long run but not short run, meanwhile exchange rate doesn’t affects import of soybean at all.