PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN POLA TANAM PADI DAN PALAWIJA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL GENERAL REGRESSION NEURAL NETWORK

Warsito, Budi and Tarno, Tarno and Sugiharto, Aris (2009) PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN POLA TANAM PADI DAN PALAWIJA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL GENERAL REGRESSION NEURAL NETWORK. Jurnal Litbang Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 7 (1).

[img]
Preview
PDF
263Kb

Abstract

This paper discuss about General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) modelling to the rainfall data at some territory in the Central Java that dependent on rainfall for irrigation in the planting system i.e Musuk, Ngaringan and Jakenan. The data that used are the dasarian data (the every ten day) while the input model are choosen from ARIMA model with the ACF and PACF plot. The result of predict in sample show that GRNN model have a high precision, although the predict out of sample is guaranted better than ARIMA not yet. Then the model is used to forecast some next stage. The result of rainfall forecasting conclude that each territory is better to apply the rice-crops-crops in the planting system, with consider the estimation of climate anomaly to begins the planting time. Key Words : GRNN, ARIMA, rainfall, planting system

Item Type:Article
Subjects:H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions:Faculty of Science and Mathematics > Department of Statistics
ID Code:47548
Deposited By:Mr Hasbi Yasin
Deposited On:10 Feb 2016 15:15
Last Modified:10 Feb 2016 15:15

Repository Staff Only: item control page