PEMODELAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA KABUPATEN/ KOTA DI JAWA TIMUR MENGGUNAKAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED ORDINAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION

Abstract

Human Development Index (HDI) is a measurement used for measuring human developmental achievement in certain area. Although, it does not measure all dimensions of human development, HDI seems able to measure principal dimension of human development that include longevity and health, knowledge and a good life. Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model is used to model a relationship between categorical response variable that have ordinal scale toward predictor variable that depend on geographical location where the data are observed. This research aims to know the factors that influence HDI of Regency/ City in East Java Province 2013 using ordinal logistic regression model and GWOLR with exponential kernel function weighting. Factors that are influencing HDI of Regency/ City in East Java are percentage of population that finish Junior High School (X2), the number of health facility (X4), and population density (X5). Based on HDI of Regency/ City in East Java’s accuracy classification result, between observations and prediction counted based on Apparent Error Rate (APER) value, it is known that GWOLR model with exponential kernel function weighting has better classification’s accuracy (86,84%) than ordinal logistic regression model (81,58%). Key Words: HDI, Ordinal Logistic Regression Model, GWOLR, Exponential Kernel Function, Classification’s Accuracy, APER