DAMPAK PERUBAHAN TARIF CUKAI TERHADAP INDUSTRI ROKOK, PERTANIAN TEMBAKAU DAN PEREKONOMIAN JAWA TENGAH

Abstract

Cigarette and tobacco industries have a big role in accelerating economic sectors, as they have high linkages. An excise is applied in cigarette production as its consumption have been being controlled. However, cigarette excise have a big portion in Indonesia’s income and of cigarette industries have a significant multiplier towards agriculture and other sectors, especially to Central Java as one of cigarette producers region. This research aims to analyze the change of excise in cigarette consumption and its impact to Central Java’s output and household income. The first step is to analyze the impact of change in cigarette excise in cigarette consumption using panel data econometrics Fixed Effect Model (FEM) method during the period of 2009-2013 between 35 regencies/cities in Central Java. The second step is to analyze the impact of cigarette consumption in Central Java’s output and sectoral household income. The estimation is done using the 2013 Input-Output (I-O) table of Central Java with 87 sectors classification. Besides the impact analysis, this research also analyzes prime sectors with high linkages with cigarette industries and other sectors in Central Java’s economy. The result shows that national income and cigarette excise have anegative impacts in household’s cigarette consumption. The increase in cigarette excise will reduce cigarette consumption, dan furthermore, will reduce output and sectoral household income. The biggest impact is suffered by cigarette industries themselves, followed by other sectors linked with cigarette industries such as agricultures and tobacco sectors.