OPTIMASI WADUK MENGGUNAKAN PROGRAM DINAMIK STOKASTIK (KASUS WADUK SAGULING JAWA BARAT)

Abstract

ABSTRACT The increasing needs of electric power, especially at Java-Bali, cause some problems in its fulfillment. Many efforts must be done to overcome those problems by considering many handicaps that will be faced, negative effect that occur and also its settlement must be effective and efficient. Among the available alternatives, the study use optimization technique and analyze performance of Saguling reservoir (included in a Java-Bali PLN interconnection net work) become a choice. Optimizing method use in the study is a stochastic dynamic program and continued with simulation. Success of optimizing technique was shown by performance of reservoir in form of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability. On the simulation, reservoir was assumed to undergo a failure if release optimizing can not fulfill half demand that has been determined. The study shows that, the application of system analyzes technique (stochastic dynamic program) is very helpful to optimize the operation of reservoir. The annual average electric product, resulted from optimization increases and better than the existing operation pattern by 21.29 % from 2,385 GWH to 2,892 GWH. From simulation that calculate the performances of Saguling reservoir based on optimize operation pattern, the reservoir has reliability level of 91.67 % indicating there is 8.33 % of failures. After a failure in order to return to previous success condition, it will take 1 month because of its big resiliency. The amount of deficit ratio from the amount of target release is 0.085 indicating that only 0.85 % water supplied from PLTA can not fulfilled the target release in the time of failure. Maximum value of deficit ratio is 0.37 and the maximum deficit amount of Sanguling reservoir is 26.408 m3/sec. So that, the application of stochastic dynamic program that is combined with the simulation model can be used as a guides in analyzing the operation policy of a reservoir and give guarantee of the continuous operational in fulfilling the electric consumption needs. Keywords : stochastic dynamic program, simulation, system analysis, optimizing operation pattern, existing operation pattern, reliability, resiliency, vulnerability