ANALISIS FENOMENA KURVA J TERHADAP KESEIMBANGAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN ENAM NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on the Indonesia’s bilateral trade balance with its six major trading partners, namely : Japan, China, Singapore, United State, South Korea and India. This study analyzes both in the short-run and in the long-run. This study uses quarterly time series data over the periode of 1995.1 to 2013.4 (for India uses quaterly time series data over the periode of 1996.2 to 2013.4). Short-run and long-run impact of the depreciation of rupiah on the trade balance between Indonesia and its six trading partners are estimated by Error Correction Model (ECM) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Impulse Response Function (IRF) is used to trace out the behaviour of the variable in response to the various shocks in the estimation model whereas Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) is used to uncovering interrelationships among the variables in the system. The empirical results indicate that : (i) in the long-run, there is a J-Curve phenomenon on the Indonesia’s bilateral trade balance with Japan, China, Singapore and South Korea; (ii) in the short-run, J-Curve phenomenon only seen on the Indonesia’s bilateral trade balance with China and Singapore