PERAN ACCRUAL DALAM PERAMALAN ARUS KAS MASA DEPAN : BUKTI EMPIRIS PERUSAHAAN YANG TERDAFTAR PADA BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Abstract

The aim of research is to study about the role of accrual to predict future cash flow. Terminology of accrual refers to accounts in financial statements which are recorded with accrual basic. The accounts are items of Cash Flow Statements especially from operating activity. The role of accrual has been identified from the ability of model that used it to predict future cash flow, precisely. The research has also studied about the significance influence of factors which have proxied level of financial statement manipulation to the ability of accrual to predict future cash flow. The population are audited financial statement for period 2008-2012 of firms what have been listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sampling method is stratified random sampling. The research would compared ability of the model which used accrual to predict future cash flow with the model which used accrual and current cash flow. The comparison was done by statistical method which are Paired Sample T-Test. Beside that, the research has used multivariate linear regression analysis to study about the significance influence of factors which have proxied level of financial statement manipulation (such as firm’s size, need of finance, subjectivity level of accrual) as independent variables to the ability of accrual to predict future cash flow as dependent variable. Not only dependent and independent variables, but also control variables (such as level of firm’s growth, cash flow’s volatility, operating cycle and industry) were used in analysis. The research determined that the ability of model which used accrual to predict future cash flow is inferior if it is compared with the models which were not use accrual. The research also determined that the ability of accrual to predict future cash flow was be influenced by the factors which have proxied level of financial statement manipulation, significantly