ANALISIS INFLASI KOTA SEMARANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI NON PARAMETRIK B-SPLINE

Abstract

Inflation is an important consideration for investors to invest in an area. An accurate prediction of inflation is required for investors in conducting a careful planning. One of the method to find the predicted value of inflation is by using B-Spline regression, a nonparametric regression which is not depend on certain assumptions, thus providing greater flexibility. The optimal B-Spline models rely on the optimal knots that has a minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). By using Semarang year-on-year inflation data from January 2008 - August 2013, the optimal B-spline models in this study are on the order of 2 ( linear ) with 2 knots, that is 5,99 and 6,09. Prediction of Semarang inflation in 2014 fluctuated around the number five and six and inflation in the end of 2014 is 6,286394%. Keywords : Inflation, B- Spline, Generalized Cross Validation