ANALISIS TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS DI KOTA SEMARANG DENGAN PENDEKATAN EKONOMI TAHUN 2010 – 2012

Abstract

Criminality, one of the most crucial social problem, is commonly associated with economic issues, namely: high rate of unemployment, low level of education and insufficient wage. Becsi (1999), Oliver (2002), Machin and Meghir (2004), Lochner (2007) argues that the education, the deterrence variable (that is the number of police officers), the proportion of the population in the productive age affect crime rate of a region. The objective of the study is to analyze determinants of the criminality. In specific, we ask how economic variables, deterrence variables and demographic variables might affect the number of crime. We exploit a panel data of 14 subdistricts in Semarang during the period of 2010 to 2012. The data are collected from secondary resources namely; Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Jawa Tengah, Polrestabes Semarang, and Dinas Pendidikan Kota Semarang. Using the fixed effect method, we find that our model are rather weak to explain the criminality in Semarang. Our result shows that only deterrence variable is significant