PERBANDINGAN ARIMA DENGAN FUZZY AUTOREGRESSIVE (FAR) DALAM PERAMALAN INTERVAL HARGA PENUTUPAN SAHAM (Studi Kasus pada Jakarta Composite Index)

Abstract

The capital market is one of the most popular investment options today. In capital market, stock price prediction is an important issue for investors, so needed a good forecasting method as a basic for decision-making for the transaction. One of the most popular forecasting method is ARIMA, but this method still uses the concept that measurement error which is obtained from the difference between the observed values with estimated values. To resolve the error in modeling, Fuzzy Autoregressive was developed, it is a model combination of Fuzzy Regression and Autoregressive (AR). This method gives results in interval forecasting, thus providing information to decision makers regarding the best and worst situation that may occur. This paper discusses the application of Fuzzy Autoregressive forecasting interval for the Jakarta Composite Index and compare it with the ARIMA prediction interval. The result of this study is Fuzzy Autoregressive interval is narrower than the ARIMA 95% significance rate. Keywords: Capital Markets, Autoregressive Fuzzy, Interval Forecasting, Jakarta Composite Index