PENGARUH COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATOR DAN LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM (Studi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2003-2011)

Abstract

Systematic risk is the risk posed by the macroeconomic factors and can not be eliminated in influencing the capital market. This makes the macroeconomic factors commonly used by investors as the stock return predictors. From this reason, many macroeconomic variables are closely analyzed to seehow much effect on stock returns. The research looked at the influence of Coincident Economic Index and Leading Economic Index for the period of JCI stock returns from 2003 to 2011. The variables used are issued by the Danareksa Institute variables to form the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and the Leading Economic Index (LEI). Coincident Economic Index is used to determine a country's current economic conditions and the Leading Economic Index is used to predict economic conditions in the future.CEI variables used are retail sales, consumption of cement, the money supply and car sales. While the LEI variable used was the arrival of foreign tourists, exports and consumer price index. This study uses multiple regression to see the effect of CEI and LEI variables on stock returns JCI period 2003 to 2011. The results of this study indicate that the effect of CEI and LEI variables to stock returns is 14.2%. Significant variables that influence is positive retail sales, which have a significant negative variables are the domestic car sales and exports, while the four other variables had no effect on stock returns signifkan JCI. From this research it is known that retail sales, car sales and exports can be used as a predictors in the IHSG stock return.