ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI EKSPOR TEKSTIL DAN PRODUK TEKSTIL (TPT) INDONESIA KE CHINA MENGHADAPI ERA CAFTA (Studi Kasus pada Textile Yarn Tahun 1989-2008)

Abstract

The role of foreign trade in national economies increasingly important especially when going to the enactment of CAFTA. The industrial sector is the dominant sector, prepared by downs of oil and gas sector capabilities in generating foreign exchange. Commodities textiles and textile products (TPT) is an important part of Indonesia's industrial sector because able to: 1) producer of textile industry of foreign exchange, 2) fulfilling the needs of the country’s textile, 3) able to absorb many employ. But on the other hand, Indonesian textile exports also face the challenge of the products in China. This research is only limited to the textile yarn or yarn spinner,the classification of SITC 65. The purpose of this study is to investigate the analysis factors that affect the exports of textile and clothing Indonesia to China in particular before the era of CAFTA Error Correction Model (ECM) is the research model that use to analyze the hypothesis of this research. The model is able to explain the short and long term behavior of time series data. The Error Correction Model may include various variables in analyzing the long term economic phenomenon and assessing the consistency of the empirical models using economic theory. In addition, this model is able to find a solution to the problem of non stationary time series data in econometrics. The regression result of the ECM model mentioned above indicates that in the short term period, price variable of Indonesian textile is the only variable that’s significantly influenced the demand of textile export volume Indonesia to China before. As the rupiah’s exchange rate to dollar’s and GDP per capita of China do not significantly affected the demand of textile export volume. Whereas, in the long term period, the price variable of Indonesian textile and GDP per capita significantly affected textile export volume of Indonesia to China, while the variable of rupiah’s exchange rate to dollar’s do not significant affected Indonesian textile export volume.