ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA EKSPOR DAN PDB DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1999-2008

Abstract

In macroeconomic theory, the relationship between exports to the national income identity is an equation for exports is part of the national income level. While the economic theory of development, linkages both variables are not fixed on the problem of identity equation itself, but rather focused on the issue, whether the export to a country able to work the economy as a whole and ultimately led to prosperity for the community (Oiconita, 2006). Related to the above problems, Aliman and A. Budi Purnomo (2001) suggests that the relationship between exports and economic growth there are four hypotheses or views that are equally reasonable (plausible) and can be accepted, including: export led growth hypothesis, export reducing growth hypothesis, internally generated export hypothesis, growth reducing export. hypothesis Based on the four hypotheses above, the question that arises is where the correct hypothesis is implemented in Indonesia during the time period 1999-2008. This question is important because it will determine the measures taken by a country. So, the title of this research is Analysis Relationship Between Export And GDP In Indonesia from 1999-2008. The formulation of the problem in this research is how the relationship between exports and GDP in Indonesia from 1999-2008 (whether the export led growth hypothesis or export reducing growth hypothesis or internally generated export hypothesis or growth reducing export hypothesis). The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between exports and GDP in Indonesia from 1999-2008. This research used several methods of analysis, among others: Unit Root Test Method to find out whether in the data there are unit roots (not stationary) or there is no unit root (stationary), Cointegration Test Method to find out whether there is a long term equilibrium relationship between two variables, and Granger Causality Test Method to determine whether the two variables have a relationship in both directions (relationships affect each other), unidirectional relationship, there is absolutely no relationship affects. The data is proceed by Eviews 6 programme. The result of estimation is there is one way fuction between export and economic growth, or in other words GDP can affect export (internally generated growth) in Indonesia. This can be seen from the value Fstatistik Y does not Granger Cause X > critical value Ftable (18.2442 > 4.46) and probability value of Y does not Granger Cause X of 0.0209, which means significant at α = 5 percent. This means, Internally Generated Export, which GDP can affect the increase or decrease of export in Indonesia from 1999-2008.