ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL KEPENDUDUKAN TERHADAP PDRB HARGA KONSTAN DI KABUPATEN JEPARA (1986-2008)

Abstract

The issue of population has long been a problem in the world economy. The imbalance of demographic composition of population of a country or region can not be offset by worry about productivity which resulted in a very low economic growth as seen from the total GDP at constant prices for each area each year. Population as an object of development as well as the subject of development, so that the problem of population (demography) may affect the economy and economic development in the long term. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of demographic variables of population growth, the population dependency ratio, the ratio of the school population in secondary school and out-migration (out Migration) to GDP at constant prices in the district of Jepara, where the GDP at constant prices is a measure of real and important indicator in view of a region's economy. The data used in this research is secondary data, with annual time series data type of the period 1986-2008 obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). By using the analytical model Ordinary Least Square (OLS) showed that the rate of population growth and dependency ratios negatively affect the GDP at constant prices, the ratio of the school population in secondary school education sector represents a positive effect on GDP at constant prices, while out-migration has no effect on the GDP price constant. From the results of coefficient of determination (R2) obtained the value 0.87, has a sense of demographic variables of population growth, the population dependency ratio, the ratio of population in secondary school and out-migration has the effect of 87% of GDP at constant prices.