Carrying Capacity Projection of Agricultural Plant Waste Product and the Population of Ruminants in Central Java

Abstract

This research was conducted to estimate and predict the carrying capacity of agricultural plant waste and the population of ruminants in Central Java based on time series data from 1985 until 2004 collected from The Agency of Animal Husbandry, The Agency of Agriculture and The Center Bureau for Statistics at Central Java. The data consisted of carrying capacity variable of agricultural food plant waste product (measured in ton DM) and ruminants’ population variable (measured in animal unit). This research used six-(6) analysis trend models, which were semi average model, least square model with linear pattern, quadratic, exponential and Auto Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results showed that based on the projection in2009, in which the feed availability from agricultural food plant waste product are estimated about 5743068,70 ton DM and the ruminants’ population will reach around 2160867,20 AU. Therefore Central Java can be estimated still afford to accommodate ruminants as many as 497960,90 AU. Keywords: carrying capacity, projection, food plant waste, ruminants