PEMODELAN DERET WAKTU MENGGUNAKAN TEKNIK EXPONENSIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK PERAMALAN DEBIT ALIRAN SUNGAI (Studi Kasus Sungai Cabenge SWS WalanaE - CenranaE)

Abstract

Exponential Smoothing Method is one of the time series modelling method which is using to predict the floods . These method is very important in hydrologic engineering especially to know the trend and to predic the discharge of a river in the future . In this study the authors have been using 4 ( four ) Exponential Smoothing Methods which are; Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Triple Exponential Smoothing (Winters), and ARIMA to predict the discharge of Cabenge river in WalanaE-CendranaE River basin.. The result of this study shows that from the 4 Exponential Smoothing methods ofwhich have been applied , the Triple Exponential Smoothing (Winters) more suitable to predict the discharge in the study area. Keywords : Modelling, Time Series, Discharge prediction