PENGARUH FAKTOR - FAKTOR DEMOGRAFI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI 35 KABUPATEN/KOTA DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 2008

Abstract

Economic growth is a benchmark for the success of a regional economic development. Economic growth is dependent on many factors, both economic factors and noneconomic factors. Demographics are one of noneconomics factors that effect economic growth. In Central Java, economic growth from 2002 to 2007 continued to increase, but in the year 2008 has decreased to 5.46 percent, which is low compared to other provincies in Java. It requires an attention from the relevant parties, as if seen from the resources and potential of the Province of Central Java, not actually lags behind other provinces in Java. The purpose of this study is to analyize how the influence of several demographic variables namely the human development index (HDI), labor, population growth, population density and the dependency ratio on economic growth in Province of Central Java at 2008. Models of this study to limit the influence of demographic variables on economic growth. Regression model used was multiple linear regression analysis method (Ordinary Least Square) by using cross section data the (cross section) in 2008. Regression analysis indicate that overall independent variables (HDI, labor, population growth, population density, dependency ratio) together can indicate effect on economic growth in Central Java. R-squared value for 0.717 amounted 71.7 percent, which means economic growth variation can be explained from the variation of the five independent variables. While the rest that is equal to 28.3 percent explained by other causes outside the model. Econometric analysis shows that the human development index, population growth, population density is significant at α = 5 percent, while labor significant at α = 10 percnt of economic growth in Ccentral Java.