ANALISIS PERMINTAAN EKSPOR KOPI DAERAH NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR OLEH JEPANG

Abstract

The trade which is carried out between nations is one of the important ways to increase the welfare and the prosperity of the nations. The export growth that tends to fluctuate will push the effort of the national productive sectors to increase their non-migas (other than oil and gas) exports with export development strategies. The purpose of this export development are to improve our global competitive advantage and to increase the role of export in the acceleration of economic growth. The purpose of this study is to analyses the factors that influence the export demand of East Nusa Tenggara coffee commodities by Japanese in short and long run on the basis of annual data from 1974 – 2003. The methods of PAM (Partial Adjustment Models) and ECM (Error Correction Model) are used as the analytical models in this study. Estimation result by ECM show that in short-run, the Javanese per capita income has significant effect but in long-run has not significant effect. Foreign currencies especially US to Rupiah (domestic currency) which is denoted in Rp./US$ in short-run has not significant effect, while in the long-run it has significant effect. The world price of Robusta coffee, and Japanese coffee consumption have not significant effect both in the short-run and in the long-run. Estimation result by PAM show that in the short-run US$ currency rate to Rupiahs or Rp/US$ has significant effect, while in the long-run has not significant effect. The world price of Robust coffee has not significant effect in the short-run but it has significant effect in the long-run. The world pride of Arabica coffee, Japanese per capita income, and Japanese coffee consumption have not significant effect both in the short-run and in the long-run.