ANALISIS PERMINTAAN KEDELAI INDONESIA

Abstract

This study analyses about the soybean demand in Indonesia. The writer chose this topic because the soybean consumption level and its processed commodity in Indonesia are high and its trend is increasing each year. However, the increased consumption does not indicate to the rise of soybean production, moreover the trend has been decreasing for the last fifteen years. Based on the background of the study, the objective of this research is to find out the relationship betweenfactors that influence the soybean demand in Indonesia both in the shortperiod andin the long term. The writer used secondary data in this study which were gathered from many sources, such as Food andAgriculture Organization4 World Bank, Central Statistics Organization (BPS) etc which were collectedfrom 1971 until 2003. The research design used to test the writer's hypothesis is Error Correction Model (ECAP Engel-Granger, that aims to find out the trend of relationship between factors influences the soybean demand in Indonesia both in shortperiod and long term. Based on the data analysis, the writerfound that the soybean price is the only variable which affect significantly on the soy bean consumption in Indonesia on the short period andhas negative relationship so that ifthe price rises in short periog the soy bean consumption in Indonesia will decrease. Yet, in the long term the significant variable which has effect is the number ofpeople variable that has positive relationship only, so every population increasing in the long term will improve the soybean consumption in Indonesia. Because in the short term the society has some alternatives beside soybean in their consumption but only in the small scale. In the long term, this has real effect to the soybean consumption only the number ofpeople because the people's preference to the soybean is still high. Keywords: soybean, demand, error-correction model.