Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Fiskal dan Moneter dalam Perekonomian Indonesia: Aplikasi Model Mundell-Fleming

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to analysis the impact offiscal and monetary policy in Indonesian economy by using Mundell - Fleming (IS-LM-BOP) model, with the main objective is to see the impact of fiscal and monetary policy to Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Indonesia as a small open economy, with imperfectly capital mobility, so temporary thesis of the Mundell-Fleming model is that monetary policy more effective than fiscal policy in improfing GDP, caused by its crowding out effect yielded from expansive offiscal policy. A variant of the Mundell - Fleming modelfor the Indonesian economy is constructed and anlysed using the Two Stage Least Square Methode (2sls) The structural equation models are constructed in this research IS equation model, LMequation model, balance ofpayment (BOP) equation model, money demand equation model, consumtion equation model, investment equation model, inflation equation model, interest rete equation model and exchange rate ofRupiah to American Dollar equation model. The result of two stage least square estimation indicating that the impact of monetary policy with money supply(M2) instrument more effective in improving GDP thanfiscal policy with government expenditure instrument . This result is proved with influence which are positive and significant among money supply(M2) variable and GDP from demand side. While goverment expenditure variables have positive effect but not significant to GDP. So that this finding support Hypothesis from model Mundell-Fleming Keywords: Fiscal policy, monetary policy, Mundell - Fleming model, two stage least square, crowding out effect