ANALISIS PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP KESEIMBANGAN EKSTERNAL DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL MUNDELL-FLEMING (Studi Kasus Indonesia Tahun Sampel 2000-2008)

Abstract

ABSTRACT Robert Mundell and Marcus Fleming has constructed the model of stability internal and external of the country which known as MundellFleming model for the openness economic. The model is the extension from the IS-LM model which describes the equilibrium ofgoods and service; and liquidity money which interest rate and exchange rate as the instrument variables. The external stability can be viewed from the current account balances. The current account balances can be measured the international funding of a country depends on its net export. It is natural when the imbalances ofcurrent account happened, but ifit becomes later, this will be danger for the economic performance. This has been occurred in Indonesia, as the global imbalances happened, started in America as the consequences of the subprime mortgage crises, the net export tremendously decrease and forced the government took the stimulate offiscal and monetary policy which affected all the economic performances. This study aims to analyze the stimulation offiscal and monetary policy into the external stability based on MundellFleming model. In this study, simultaneous equation with two stages least square model is used to assessing the stimulates ofthefiscal and monetary policy into the external stability based on Mundell-Fleming model. This Model can cover many variables in analysing the mechanism of its model and also in studying empirical model consistency with economic theory. The empirical result indicates that the budget balances as the proxy of fiscal policy is positively significant affect into the external stability. Later, M2 as the proxy of the monetary policy is negatively significant affect into the external stability. The interest rate as one of the instrument variable is negatively significant affect into the external stability, and the exchange rate as another instrument variable is positively significant into external stability. Keywords: External Balances, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Mundell-Fleming Model, Simultaneous Equation Model, two stage least square