Analyse the forecasting of raw material inventory at PT Bina Guna Kimia Ungaran

Abstract

Raw material represent the important element at company producing goods. Existence of raw material have to really paid attention as according to requirement, so that needed by forecasting of raw material to assist the planning of levying of raw material coming near to realize. This forecasting is by relying on usage of raw material of at years. previously. This research is background overshadow the existence of fluctuation of usage of raw material of Furadan 3G at PT Construct To Utilize the Chemistry Ungaran, fluctuation cause its wrong is estimate (generating difference of goals and realize). Usage of raw material which have this fluctuation to can be estimated with the forecasting so that can know the requirement of raw material to come coming near fact. This research aim to to know how big deviation in forecasting requirement of raw material of product Furadan 3G. Forecasting method of what most suited for product Furadan 3G. this Research type is analytical descriptive. Data utilized to forecast that is usage of raw material of Furadan 3G from year 2001-2005, forecasted to use four forecasting method: mean method, smallest square method, kuadratis method, eksponensial method. Result of calculation show big of forecasting deviation with the: mean method, for the Materials of Active 49,4105 ton and Carrier 19.764,1852 ton. smallest Square method, for the Materials of Active 44,4883 ton and Carrier 17.795,3083 ton. Kuadratis method, for the Materials of Active 26,9285 ton and Carrier 10.771,4088 ton. Eksponensial method, for the Materials of Active 40,5625 ton and Carrier 16.264,2465 ton. After a forecasting calculation by using 4 the method, big its deviation is compared to bigger of deviation of realize and the goals which have been happened the company of during range of time 2001 up to 2005. There by company suggested remain to meggunakan way of previously, based on data of sales of area and sale data 2 the last year.