Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang mempengaruhi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi sebagai Input dalam Formulasi Kebijakan Publik Di Bidang Ekonomi di Kabupaten Tabanan Bali

Abstract

The objective of this research is to understand and to analyze the factors that brought a dominant influence toward economic development, and to review and propose an alternative formula for developmental policy for Kabupaten Tabanan, Bali. Factors to be examined are private investments, population growth, developmental expenditures, routine expenditures, taxes, and export as independent variables, and economic growth as the dependent variable. Data to be applied are PDRB at constant price rate, data about population growth, data about private investments on PMA & PMDN, data on governmental investments that reflected from developmental expenditure, data on governmental consumption as part of routine expenditure, data on PAD that source from taxes and export volume. All of these data is collected from period 1990 to 2001. Model is estimated using multiple linear regression using enter method by SPSS Ver 10.0. Several tests are performed to examine the data, such as partial significance test, simultaneous significance test, and coefficient determination test. Results of the study show that private investments, routine expenditure, taxes, and export has significant influences toward economic development. However, population growth and developmental expenditure has no significant influences toward economic development. After the observation being expanded by a comprehensive assessment that include aspects such as economy, technical, administration, law, social, and politic in order to propose the best alternative option from the factors that influence economic development, therefore, it is concluded that private investments option get the major priority, followed by taxes, and export. This results will finally be proposed as the input for public policy formulation regarding economic development in Kabupaten Tabanan, Bali. Tujuan dad penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang paling dominan berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi serta mengkaji dan membuat alternatif rumusan kebijakan pengembangan dad faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh tersebut di Kabupaten Tabanan Bali. Faktor-faktor yang diteliti adalah investasi swasta, pertumbuhan penduduk, pengeluaran pembangunan, pengeluaran rutin, pajak dan ekspor sebagai independen variabel sedangkan dependen variabelnya adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi. Data yang digunakan ialah PDRB dengan harga konstan, data pertumbuhan penduduk, data investasi swasta yang dicatat dad PMA & PMDN, investasi pemerintah yang tercermin dalam pengeluaran pembangunan, konsumsi pemerintah yang merupakan belanja rutin, PAD yang bersumber dari pajak dan volume ekspor kesemuanya ini data kurun waktu dad tahun 1990 — 2001. Model diestimasi dengan regresi