ANALISIS FAKTOR - FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENANAMAN MODAL ASING DI INDONESIA

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the effect of gross domestic brutto, real domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate, foreign exchange rate and deposits at banking sector to foreign direct investment (MI) in Indonesia prior to economic crisis (1993.1-1997.2) and 1997.3-2001.4 periode. These data are analyzed by dynamic linear model of error correction method (ECM). The results of this research point out that prior to economic crisis FDI in Indonesia was affected significantly by foreign exchange rate and deposits at banking sector both short run and long run. However, real domestic interest rate and foreign interest rate affected FDI in the long run significantly. In the 1997.3 — 2001.4 periode, FDI was affected by gross domestic brutto, real domestic interest rate and foreign interest rate both in the short run and the long run periode. 1-lowever, FDI has affected by deposits at banking sector in the short run periode significantly. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penganih dari produk domestik brutto, tingkat suku bunga deposito riil, tingkat suku bunga luar negeri, nilai tukar rupiah dan posisi dana masyarakat di perbankan terhadap penanaman modal asing (PMA) di Indonesia selama periode sebelum krisis (1993.1-1997.2) dan saat krisis (1997.3-2001.4). Data dianalisis dengan menggunakan model tinier dinamis kesalahan (error correction method =ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjulckan bahwa dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang penanaman modal asing di Indonesia sebelum krisis ekonomi terjadi dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh nilai tukar rupiah dan posisi dana masyarakat, tingkat suku bunga berpenganth dalam jangka panjang. Saat krisis ekonomi, PMA dipengaruhi secara signifikan dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang oleh produk domestik brutto, posisi dana masyarakat dalam jangka pendek berpengaruh terhadap PMA dan tingkat suku bunga berpengaruh secara signifikan dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek.