ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TABUNGAN DAERAH DI KOTA SEMARANG

Abstract

The objective of this research is to analyses the effects of gross domestic regional product, interest rate and net exports on the aggregate region savings as well as government savings and private savings. The data used in this research are annual time series of 1983 — 2001 There are three models in this research namely, First, region savings; Second, government savings; Third, private savings. Cointegration and error correction model (ECM) were invoked to analysed the data.. The results of model I and model 3, showed that interest rate in the short run have positive effects on yhe aggregate region savings and the private savings. While the gross domestic regional product and the net exports does not affect on region savings. Model 2 indicated that in the short run gross domestic regional product and interest rate have negativel y effects on government savings.ln the long run the interest rate and the net exports have negative effected negatively to government savings. In the short run, the three of independent variables have positive effects on region savings and private savings which coincided to the hypotheses. The gross domestic regional product performed positively effect on region savings, government savings and private savings in the long run lastly. The interest rate and net exports have negative effects on the three variables dependents. Keywords : Regional — Government — Private Savings, Cointegration and Error Correction Model