STUDI TENTANG POLA MIGRASI MIGRAN SIRKULER ASAL WONOGIRI KE JAKARTA

Abstract

This study is a case study of migration intention in the Wonogiri Regency, Central Java. The aim of this study is to analyze the factors influencing the migrants' migration intention and rural-to-urban migration pattern from Wonogiri to Jakarta. To reach the aim, this study uses an analysis technique of logistic regression, i.e., a binary logit regression model with the primer data from 150 respondents (N = 150). This model makes an effort to find a best-fit model with the four scenarios in order to examine hypothesis. The result of this analysis states that the fourth scenario is considered to be the most appropriate scenario model in which this scenario examines the model without education and marriage status variables. The factors significantly influencing the migration intention, as indicated in the four scenarios, are as follows: age (AGE), occupation status in the rural area (JOBVLG) and income in the urban area (INCOME); while property variable (PROPERTY) does not influence the migration intention because it has a significant probability, i.e., more than a=5% 5% or a = 10%. The result of prediction in the binary logit regression model states that the respondents who consistently remain to be the circular migrants (not permanent) are relatively higher, reaching 84.6%. The model, on the whole, used to explain the factors influencing the respondents' intention for the circular migration to Jakarta is reliable to predict at 65.3%. This rate indicates that the respondents' behavior tends to have a pattern as the circular migrants.